Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 19.853541 21.595152 23.519623 25.824002 28.535826 31.661656 35.591723
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.075253 19.323360 21.988362 25.450018 29.939616 35.742116 44.143056
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.204097 17.700698 20.817260 25.129987 31.193976 39.882812 54.374211
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.863235 16.493429 19.911941 24.893129 32.401974 44.240297 67.082655
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.855803 15.563624 19.200969 24.737865 33.616777 48.945831 83.464153
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.933193 14.633419 18.351000 24.203543 34.064892 52.456720 100.403278
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.580708 14.434314 18.489360 25.163451 37.203825 62.371072 146.541738
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.981973 13.827217 17.951636 24.937783 38.133898 68.082057 191.951367
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.533142 13.394482 17.624850 25.001990 39.623582 75.989888 275.577684
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.169437 13.054760 17.402150 25.202814 41.437894 86.041477 448.438284
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.815964 12.702519 17.122889 25.254663 42.941847 96.445030 835.473691
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.436179 12.284691 16.700519 24.980664 43.627771 104.783358 1797.128066
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.132828 11.971025 16.432685 24.985865 45.060836 118.011190 22959.531628
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.813055 11.613888 16.065670 24.752736 45.848627 129.776552 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.517169 11.278247 15.710931 24.502677 46.546753 142.575969 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.252933 10.978906 15.397494 24.301135 47.347655 157.918225 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.018997 10.716069 15.129386 24.163784 48.319658 177.146353 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.746051 10.378191 14.708766 23.655313 48.039325 187.032770 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.699827 10.404031 14.933508 24.581040 52.666437 259.626930 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.497432 10.164490 14.663619 24.365277 53.395146 295.329027 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.344713 10.000275 14.521240 24.427583 55.175010 362.928853 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.217690 9.872995 14.438704 24.620944 57.558861 477.246602 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.080088 9.722071 14.302657 24.670915 59.433625 628.248136 NaN